Thor’s Hall

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Archive for the ‘Iran’

Iranian Antics

December 03, 2009 By: Thor Category: GWOT, Iran, Terrorism, Threats No Comments →

I have commented before, about the rather low key recognition that seems to be given the threat to these United States that is Iran.  We have recently seen

  • Specifics about their nuclear weapons development.
  • The ties that have been developed with Hugo Chavez, and the relationship being developed with Venezuela.
  • The activities that they are taking in Nicaragua and the potential for infiltration of agents throughout the western hemisphere
  • The questionable legitimacy of the recent presidential election
  • The violent crackdowns within the country
  • Actions to destabilize Iraq
  • Sponsorship of Hezbollah, and their actions as an instigator within Israel and Lebanon.

Today – I see a piece in the WSJ, that reminds us that Iran really hasn’t changed all that much.  It seems that there is a great deal of fear from the security forces there, and that they seem to be very similiar to the old Savak organization.

Back during the Iran Contra investigations, we saw Oliver North give testimony that Usama Bin Laden was arguably the most dangerous man on the planet.  In 2009, we are struggling as a nation to combat the movement that UBL constructed and arrayed against those nations that are not predominantly Muslim.   I see some parallels here with the actions that Iran have been taking over the past several years and I fear that we are close to a tipping point where direct action will surface in the form of state sponsored terrorism within North America and Europe.

In addition, we are likely to see state level actions within the middle east that are driven by Iran.   Please recall that Iran and Iraq fought a war over oil.  It will not take much for Iran to roll up Iraq, particularly when US forces withdraw.  From that action, there is an easy road into the Kingdom of Saud from northern border, and across the gulf.

It is in the interest of these United States that the mission in Afghanistan be well defined and spelled out.  In my mind it is two fold:

  1. Capture or elimination of UBL, and elimination  of Al Qaida and Taliban operations  in Agghanistan, and Pakistan.
  2. Building of Infrastructure and government within Afghanistan to stabilize the region.  That means power plants, telecommunications, moving away from poppy production to other crops, bringing in some level of industrial base and educational system, eliminating (or reducing) government and police corruption, and instituting a viable rule of law.

That is a tough mission but it is one that can be accomplished and doing so would allow the US to focus it’s resources on Iran (and other areas) to defuse the situation that is currently simmering.  Our conflict with Iran goes back 3 decades (or more) and holds the potential to very quickly turn into a hot conflict.  My fear is that the Iranians feel embolden at this time and may be in a position soon to execute a broad, sweeping operation that will cause us a great deal of pain, and heartache.

Images

July 30, 2009 By: Thor Category: Evil walks the earth, Iran, Politics No Comments →

I have commented before about how there is so very much that takes place subliminally in images.  Things that we may not conciously be aware of that play on our perceptions.  In one camp there are those that actually research these things and then stage the image appropriately to match.  In another camp there are those that don’t really notice.  Finally there is the camp where, someone does notice and take some sort of action.  Perhaps you have seen this image before.

podborka_629_58

Now, I am not at all certain why someone would feel the need to associate themselves with Hilter, or Nazi Germany but, there you have it.  Draw your own conclusions.

Iran in Latin America

October 30, 2008 By: Thor Category: Iran, Terrorism, Threats No Comments →

Several months ago I referenced a post that detailed the acceptance and safe basing of Irain covert operators in Nicaragua, and the potential pipeline that this established through our southern border, directly into the United States.

Recently broader facts have been made public, regarding the role the Hezzbolah is playing in Latin America.  The fact the Hezzbolah is a proxy organization for the Iranin theocracy has been well established.  So, this news while not surprising is alarming.

The profits from the sales of drugs went to finance Hezbollah,” said Gladys Sanchez, lead investigator for the special prosecutor’s office in Bogota, in an interview. “This is an example of how narco-trafficking is a theme of interest to all criminal organizations, the FARC, the paramilitaries and terrorists.”

Ms. Sanchez is exactly right. The contours of the pipeline are easy to identify. The regime of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela has allowed Iranian banks to operate, brought in flights whose passengers are not registered, and issued multiple identification cards to Iranian and Syrian individuals.

The FARC, in Colombia, in turn, exporting some 250 tons of cocaine through Venezuela, who allows the rebels to pay off generals in charge of specific ports. Chavez has to do this, in part, to buy peace in the military, who have grown tired of his antics and his inability to fulfill his promises.

So, Iran sponsors Hezbollah and allies with Chavez. Chavez sponsors the FARC and allies with Iran. The FARC has the dope, Hezbollah has the international distribution network, having been involved in heroin traffic and organized criminal activities for years.

What is alarming to me is that, despite Hezbollah’s stated intention to attack the United States and Iran’s evident interest in having the ability to strike at the United States, this alliance (and the Chavez-Iran alliance) attract very little attention at senior policy levels.

The potential for the establishment of long term cels with in the US, or the evolution of the drug trade to the use of tactics and strategies common to the actions that we see in the middle east should be a major focus of the United States.  Whether that focus is through a continued struggle to support friendly Latin American governments, or an escalation of the “War on Drugs” or some covert middle ground is a decision for the next POTUS and his administration.

In the interim do not be surprised if nasty things start to pop out of the wood work in Central and Southern America, beyond what we already see in Mexico.

A more in depth analysis of this issue is presented by Douglas Farrah here.  The basis for the article is found in the LA TImes, here

A Positive to The Econimic Crisis

October 11, 2008 By: Thor Category: Economics, Energy, Iran, Threats No Comments →

I have made no bone about my opinions of the threat that is posed to the United States by Iran.  I have pretty clearly stated my opinion that Iran has been a huge supporter of terrorism across the globe since 1979, and perhaps earlier.

An interesting point about the impact of the falling price of oil on our friends in Iran was made over at Threatwatch.org.  Even more interesting is the delta between the tipping points for each country referenced.

The price of crude oil has hit an 8 month low, dipping to just under $90 a barrel. The decrease in price is being attributed to the global financial slowdown, which analysts believe will lead to a reduction in the consumption of gas. The decline in price should come as some relief to the average American and the numerous industries that are struggling to cope with the ripple effects of high energy costs.

Iranian leadership, however, view the decline in the price of oil with great concern. Speaking at the Second International Gas Conference in Tehran, a gathering that includes leading oil and gas producers, Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari called on OPEC members to stabilize prices at over $100 a barrel. “A price of US$100 and below is not suitable for anybody, neither oil producers nor oil consumers… OPEC members need to respect their output quota to avoid a worsening of the oversupply.”

At this point, Iran stands alone in its concern over the current price level for oil. But what is there motive? Is it simple greed – the higher the price of oil, the greater the revenues? To an extent, greed does play a role. However, there seems to be real fiscal concerns at hand for the Islamic Republic. Mohsin Khan, Director of Middle East and Central Asia at the International Monetary Fund, argues,

Iran’s break-even price is $90 a barrel, and that is a big issue in Iran right now. … If prices dip below $90 a barrel, and we have seen it touch $89 earlier this week, then they would have to tighten their public expenditure policy, and probably cut subsidies, which would be an issue for the government there – the public would not be content.

Go read the entire article here.

Iranian Fusion

August 05, 2008 By: Thor Category: Foriegn Policy, Iran, Terrorism, Threats No Comments →

Ed Morrisey over at Hot Air popped this one up a few days ago.  He nails most of this on the head so I won’t drive too deep into it.  I looked at the headline and the fusion comment puzzled me, I was hoping something had happened in the research recently that I missed.  Alas fusion still seems to be an overly energetic reaction that humans have found out how to initiate but are unable to control.

Go read the post, and the implications of the comment made by the Iranians.  Me thinks some one either intentionally put this out there as a public negotiation ploy, or it’s an oops I said fission not fusion.  No fusion here, move along.

Counter Terrorism

June 14, 2008 By: Thor Category: Iran, Terrorism No Comments →

IRAN

I have posted previously about Iran.  I have commented previously about events in the 70’s that effect my view of Iran.

It seems that every time I turn around, something else is popping up that points a finger at Iran and their role in just about every major terrorist event that has impacted the US since the fall of the Shah.

Today I was catching up on some Stratfor e-mail and ran across chapter 2 of “Ghost…”.  Then I went and ordered the book.  After reading chapter 1, I though wow this should be interesting and pretty cool.  Chapter 2… I’m in with both feet.  It’s good stuff.  Read chapter 2 below.  Then go to Amazon, buy it, and read the whole thing.

GHOST: Confessions of a Counterterrorism Agent, Chapter 2