Thor’s Hall

So much of the focus recently has been on Iran’s nuclear program, and threats to close the Straits of Hormuz, that we forget the internal issues that are still in play.  Over at the Long War Journal we are finding out about suicide bombings within Iran, that targeted the Republican Guard.

A couple of interesting observations / points.  A.) We are hearing about this event.  The news was not completely blacked out.  B.) That there are still active opposition groups within Iran, that have the moxie to initiate a two stage suicide bombing event against the Republican Guard.

We live in interesting times.

There are a lot of actions that people take in this world that are often considered inappropriate.  They range from politically incorrect, to insulting, to just plain criminal.

This morning I read a headline “U.S. Orders Covert Military Action in Middle East”.  Admittedly it is a wire article from AP which by definition slants their reports in mysterious ways.  For reference, The Associated Press has often been renamed The Associate With Terrorists Press for many of their reports from the Middle East.  In fairness though, the story was initially published by the fine folks <gag> at the  NY Times.

Reading through the article I come to see that this is pretty much old news.  Perusing the details you find pre-positioning of Reapers on the Horn of Africa (check), SF work in Somalia (check), covert reconnaissance and disruption goals in Iran and Yeman (no surprise).  Pretty much the standard things that you would expect to be occurring in our current world state.

Here is my thought.  If the NYT reporter(s) had been out in the countryside of Iran, or Yeman or in the Horn of Africa and ran across these teams that is good journalism.  You went in search of activity and ran across an interesting story.

But, that is not the case.  In this case we have “Anonymous U.S. officials” saying things to a reporter.  I am thinking that someone needs to be arrested, and tried for violations of various secrecy acts.

In order to receive a security clearance you have to jump through significant hoops.  Somewhere along the line, the “Anonymous U.S. officials” have forgotten what security means, and the repercussions that can occur when security is breached.

People taking inappropriate actions, that in this case have the potential to cost warriors their lives and cripple our ability to gather intelligence in the area.

Well it looks like the Iranian’s are taking some interesting tactical and strategic steps,  In some ways this is reminiscent of the Cold War concept of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction).  You can find an interesting description and analysis of the events over at Pajamas Media here.

It will be a very interesting summer, and unfortunately I think that the Iranian governments aim maybe more widespread than the events in Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Iran.

A couple of interesting pieces showing up on various sources this week.

In the past I have posted about Iran’s continuing thrust into Latin America, and from there the potential for infiltration across our southern border.  Douglas Farrah has an interesting essay up focused on Iran’s involvement in Latin America.

The recent unclassified Pentagon assessment of Iran’s military power released last month to Congress shows official reporting is finally catching up to reality on the ground in regard to Iran’s Latin American activities. The increase comes at a time of deep economic troubles for the Chávez government in Venezuela, as noted by the Hudson Institute’s Jaime Daremblum.

It is also only the most public looks at how Venezuela and Iran are enhancing their military partnerships, particularly in field of asymmetrical warfare where both states are hoping to use their non-state proxies to take on the “Empire,” meaning the United States. For a range of views on this, see my chapter and others in Woodrow Wilson Center publication Iran in Latin America: Threat or Axis of Annoyance?

The assessment contains several interesting nuggets, including that Iran’s highest priority is the survival of the regime, and hence its fixation with asymmetrical warfare and its outreach to groups that oppose U.S. interests. This includes the Boliviarian states of Latin America. (For those who read Spanish, I have an article in the most recent Poder magazine on some of these issues). The DOD assessment does not discuss Iran’s blossoming financial network across the region.

Some of the key findings that relate to Latin America and Iran’s MO in the region:

Diplomacy, economic leverage, soft power and active sponsorship of terrorist and paramilitary groups are tools Iran uses to drive its aggressive foreign policy. In particular, it uses terrorism to pressure or intimidate other countries and more broadly to leverage its strategic deterrent.

Go read the entire article and it’s links.  It is an interesting study on how there is a threat axis from the south, and really points out the results of this country’s  lack of commitment to follow through on the tenets of the Monroe Doctrine, and the Roosevelt Corollary.

At the same time we have seen two recent incidents that have had a profound effect on the US.  The Times Square VBIED, and the Deep Water Horizon disaster.  While I doubt that these were coordinated events they are seem to fit what we traditionally think of as a terrorist threat axis using kinetic attacks.  Roderick Jones takes a look at a recent 5 day span in Manhatten, and presents us with the possibility that we are transitioning to a new phase of the Global War on Terror.   You owe it to yourself to read the whole thing.  Here is a taste:

Two events centered on New York City separated by five days demonstrated the end of one phase of terrorism and the pending arrival of the next. The failed car-bombing in Times square and the dizzying stock market crash less than a week later mark the book ends of terrorist eras.

The attempt by Faisal Shahzad to detonate a car bomb in Times Square was notable not just for its failure but also the severely limited systemic impact a car-bomb could have, even when exploding in crowded urban center. Car-bombs or Vehicle-Borne IED’s have a long history (incidentally one of the first was the 1920 ‘cart and horse bomb’ in Wall Street, which killed 38 people). VBIED’s remain deadly as a tactic within an insurgency or warfare setting but with regard to modern urban terrorism the world has moved on. We are now living within a highly virtualized system and the dizzying stock-market crash on the 6th May 2010 shows how vulnerable this system is to digital failure. While the NYSE building probably remains a symbolic target for some terrorists a deadly and capable adversary would ignore this physical manifestation of the financial system and disrupt the data-centers, software and routers that make the global financial system tick. Shahzad’s attempted car-bomb was from another age and posed no overarching risk to western societies. The same cannot be said of the vulnerable and highly unstable financial system.

I have commented before, about the rather low key recognition that seems to be given the threat to these United States that is Iran.  We have recently seen

• Specifics about their nuclear weapons development.
• The ties that have been developed with Hugo Chavez, and the relationship being developed with Venezuela.
• The activities that they are taking in Nicaragua and the potential for infiltration of agents throughout the western hemisphere
• The questionable legitimacy of the recent presidential election
• The violent crackdowns within the country
• Actions to destabilize Iraq
• Sponsorship of Hezbollah, and their actions as an instigator within Israel and Lebanon.

Today – I see a piece in the WSJ, that reminds us that Iran really hasn’t changed all that much.  It seems that there is a great deal of fear from the security forces there, and that they seem to be very similiar to the old Savak organization.

Back during the Iran Contra investigations, we saw Oliver North give testimony that Usama Bin Laden was arguably the most dangerous man on the planet.  In 2009, we are struggling as a nation to combat the movement that UBL constructed and arrayed against those nations that are not predominantly Muslim.   I see some parallels here with the actions that Iran have been taking over the past several years and I fear that we are close to a tipping point where direct action will surface in the form of state sponsored terrorism within North America and Europe.

In addition, we are likely to see state level actions within the middle east that are driven by Iran.   Please recall that Iran and Iraq fought a war over oil.  It will not take much for Iran to roll up Iraq, particularly when US forces withdraw.  From that action, there is an easy road into the Kingdom of Saud from northern border, and across the gulf.

It is in the interest of these United States that the mission in Afghanistan be well defined and spelled out.  In my mind it is two fold:

1. Capture or elimination of UBL, and elimination  of Al Qaida and Taliban operations  in Agghanistan, and Pakistan.
2. Building of Infrastructure and government within Afghanistan to stabilize the region.  That means power plants, telecommunications, moving away from poppy production to other crops, bringing in some level of industrial base and educational system, eliminating (or reducing) government and police corruption, and instituting a viable rule of law.

That is a tough mission but it is one that can be accomplished and doing so would allow the US to focus it’s resources on Iran (and other areas) to defuse the situation that is currently simmering.  Our conflict with Iran goes back 3 decades (or more) and holds the potential to very quickly turn into a hot conflict.  My fear is that the Iranians feel embolden at this time and may be in a position soon to execute a broad, sweeping operation that will cause us a great deal of pain, and heartache.

I have commented before about how there is so very much that takes place subliminally in images.  Things that we may not conciously be aware of that play on our perceptions.  In one camp there are those that actually research these things and then stage the image appropriately to match.  In another camp there are those that don’t really notice.  Finally there is the camp where, someone does notice and take some sort of action.  Perhaps you have seen this image before.

Now, I am not at all certain why someone would feel the need to associate themselves with Hilter, or Nazi Germany but, there you have it.  Draw your own conclusions.

Several months ago I referenced a post that detailed the acceptance and safe basing of Irain covert operators in Nicaragua, and the potential pipeline that this established through our southern border, directly into the United States.

Recently broader facts have been made public, regarding the role the Hezzbolah is playing in Latin America.  The fact the Hezzbolah is a proxy organization for the Iranin theocracy has been well established.  So, this news while not surprising is alarming.

The profits from the sales of drugs went to finance Hezbollah,” said Gladys Sanchez, lead investigator for the special prosecutor’s office in Bogota, in an interview. “This is an example of how narco-trafficking is a theme of interest to all criminal organizations, the FARC, the paramilitaries and terrorists.”

Ms. Sanchez is exactly right. The contours of the pipeline are easy to identify. The regime of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela has allowed Iranian banks to operate, brought in flights whose passengers are not registered, and issued multiple identification cards to Iranian and Syrian individuals.

The FARC, in Colombia, in turn, exporting some 250 tons of cocaine through Venezuela, who allows the rebels to pay off generals in charge of specific ports. Chavez has to do this, in part, to buy peace in the military, who have grown tired of his antics and his inability to fulfill his promises.

So, Iran sponsors Hezbollah and allies with Chavez. Chavez sponsors the FARC and allies with Iran. The FARC has the dope, Hezbollah has the international distribution network, having been involved in heroin traffic and organized criminal activities for years.

What is alarming to me is that, despite Hezbollah’s stated intention to attack the United States and Iran’s evident interest in having the ability to strike at the United States, this alliance (and the Chavez-Iran alliance) attract very little attention at senior policy levels.

The potential for the establishment of long term cels with in the US, or the evolution of the drug trade to the use of tactics and strategies common to the actions that we see in the middle east should be a major focus of the United States.  Whether that focus is through a continued struggle to support friendly Latin American governments, or an escalation of the “War on Drugs” or some covert middle ground is a decision for the next POTUS and his administration.

In the interim do not be surprised if nasty things start to pop out of the wood work in Central and Southern America, beyond what we already see in Mexico.

A more in depth analysis of this issue is presented by Douglas Farrah here.  The basis for the article is found in the LA TImes, here

I have made no bone about my opinions of the threat that is posed to the United States by Iran.  I have pretty clearly stated my opinion that Iran has been a huge supporter of terrorism across the globe since 1979, and perhaps earlier.

An interesting point about the impact of the falling price of oil on our friends in Iran was made over at Threatwatch.org.  Even more interesting is the delta between the tipping points for each country referenced.

The price of crude oil has hit an 8 month low, dipping to just under $90 a barrel. The decrease in price is being attributed to the global financial slowdown, which analysts believe will lead to a reduction in the consumption of gas. The decline in price should come as some relief to the average American and the numerous industries that are struggling to cope with the ripple effects of high energy costs.

Iranian leadership, however, view the decline in the price of oil with great concern. Speaking at the Second International Gas Conference in Tehran, a gathering that includes leading oil and gas producers, Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari called on OPEC members to stabilize prices at over $100 a barrel. “A price of US$100 and below is not suitable for anybody, neither oil producers nor oil consumers… OPEC members need to respect their output quota to avoid a worsening of the oversupply.”

At this point, Iran stands alone in its concern over the current price level for oil. But what is there motive? Is it simple greed – the higher the price of oil, the greater the revenues? To an extent, greed does play a role. However, there seems to be real fiscal concerns at hand for the Islamic Republic. Mohsin Khan, Director of Middle East and Central Asia at the International Monetary Fund, argues,

Iran’s break-even price is $90 a barrel, and that is a big issue in Iran right now. … If prices dip below $90 a barrel, and we have seen it touch $89 earlier this week, then they would have to tighten their public expenditure policy, and probably cut subsidies, which would be an issue for the government there – the public would not be content.

Go read the entire article here.

Ed Morrisey over at Hot Air popped this one up a few days ago.  He nails most of this on the head so I won’t drive too deep into it.  I looked at the headline and the fusion comment puzzled me, I was hoping something had happened in the research recently that I missed.  Alas fusion still seems to be an overly energetic reaction that humans have found out how to initiate but are unable to control.

Go read the post, and the implications of the comment made by the Iranians.  Me thinks some one either intentionally put this out there as a public negotiation ploy, or it’s an oops I said fission not fusion.  No fusion here, move along.

IRAN

I have posted previously about Iran.  I have commented previously about events in the 70′s that effect my view of Iran.

It seems that every time I turn around, something else is popping up that points a finger at Iran and their role in just about every major terrorist event that has impacted the US since the fall of the Shah.

Today I was catching up on some Stratfor e-mail and ran across chapter 2 of “Ghost…”.  Then I went and ordered the book.  After reading chapter 1, I though wow this should be interesting and pretty cool.  Chapter 2… I’m in with both feet.  It’s good stuff.  Read chapter 2 below.  Then go to Amazon, buy it, and read the whole thing.

GHOST: Confessions of a Counterterrorism Agent, Chapter 2

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