The last 24 hrs have seen specific actions in the middle east taken by Israel and by Hamas. Those actions are the opening shots in Israel’s attack against Iran.
Think about that for a minute.
History shows us that events that seem relatively innoccuss on the surface tend to be the turning points that cascade into deeper and broader exchanges. This is likely one of those key events that will be referenced by historians in the future.
Yesterday, Israel showed the world that they have the ability to strike with surgical skill AND use the power of social media to defend their position immediately.
Yesterday’s initial strike against Hamas is telling. Hamas is a proxy for Iran, receiving aid, training, and supplies. It has begun.
I expect that Israel will continue to move to secure their borders, and create any necessary buffers that they need to assure the security of their nation over the next several weeks, and then move into a broader set of strikes against Iran directly. This could take any number of forms, and it will be interesting to see if they choose to strike against Iran naval or other “offshore” assets prior to a direct strike against Iran proper.
The question becomes what response do the Iranians take? Do they limit their defensive actions to Israel? Or do they choose to try and distract the rest of the world by drawing in other nations to assert pressure to Israel diplomatically? I suspect the latter. I would expect that we will see Iranian forces move into Iraq, and Afghanistan to strike remaining US assets. I also expect to see Iranian troops more directly engaged in Syria, Lebonan, and Gaza. The question becomes…. do we see activity from Venezuela? Do we see indirect action within the US?