Thor’s Hall

Thoughts on things that catch my interest
Subscribe



Archive for June 11th, 2008

The Politics of Energy

June 11, 2008 By: Thor Category: Energy, Politics No Comments →

Growing up and learning to drive during the 70′s I think I can safely say that I have been paying attention to the energy situation for quite some time now.  A couple of things that have really struck me over that time:

1.  The general populace of the United States does not understand the energy situation and really does not want to.  But, when it begins to impact their pocket books it is an emotionally charged topic.  Rational arguments don’t matter.  I know that applies to other things as well like gun rights.

2.  Energy is a global issue that is primarily driven by economics, and then complicated by global politics.

3.  Technology is good, and can be applied very creatively to solve global energy requirements.  Particularly if the economics are there to support the investment.

3a.  In addition to economics, technology takes lead time to be viable.  If you are not looking 10 to 20 years ahead you will be behind the curve.

4.  Global Warming arguments don’t hold water given a study of the data and should not impact any energy discussions.

Now when you through global and domestic political agendas on top of this you can get a real mess.  Given there is only so much we can do about the international politics part of the equation.  But let’s get the fracking domestic politics out of the picture.   Congress critters are elected to represent the people and to  balance the other two branches of government.   Over the past couple of years our citizen representatives have failed to take action that would have taken the country down alternate paths and helped prevent the current energy “crisis”.  If they chose to act today it would still be a fairly lengthy period of time before any new petroleum sources came on line, or any new nuclear plants were completed and brought on line.  It’s almost too late to act folks… recognize this point in history for what it is and let’s move down the road of fixing the energy variable in our economy so that we are still a global leader in 30 years when alternate energy technology, and infrastructure is ready to come on line.

Over at Flopping Aces, they are following this issue as well and posted a transcript of a recent speech on the floor of the house.  As you might expect the statements are pretty partisan but, you should expect that from government.  The facts however are very telling.  Go take a look.

Tanker Built in Alabama – Future Problems?

June 11, 2008 By: Thor Category: Aviation, Politics 1 Comment →

I ran across this opinion piece from the Seattle PI, that puts an interesting spin on the infrastructure / culture issues surrounding the EADS Taker contract.   This is something that most folks don’t spend a lot of time thinking about.  One of the reasons that companies are able to aggressively price production points for new programs is often because they have a sweet deal from the local governments involved.  It maybe in the form of tax breaks, new roads, or even outright gifting of the land that a facility is built on.  All in exchange for jobs, and an increased tax base.

For areas that have a solid government infrastructure, and so on these are reasonable incentives.  However, if the culture in the area has a different set of standards than the company expects, it could be an issue.  Take a look at this op-ed piece.  You tell me, are the alarm bells in my head reasonable?

Here is the entire article in case the link expires, or is archived.

Tanker contract will test Alabama legal infrastructure

KEN ALLARD

When Robert Gates fired the two top leaders of the Air Force last week, he not only reasserted civilian control over the armed forces but, inevitably, re-ignited that simmering debate about the new Air Force tanker. And maybe that is a good thing because sometimes an unblinking second look at the beginning can save a lot of pain later on.

As a career officer, I served in the Army, not the Air Force, and have never had any connections with Boeing or EADS, the parent of Airbus.

But while on active duty, I helped write the landmark procurement reforms (“reinventing government”) that were a legitimate achievement of the early Clinton years. That landmark legislation leveled the playing field for multi-national firms like EADS to compete on what had been an exclusive “Buy American” defense preserve.

So when it was announced that EADS had been awarded the contract to build the new Air Force tanker, the resulting hullabaloo often seemed hypocritical. However, no one has subsequently raised a more legitimate but often overlooked question.

If Boeing Co. had won the tanker contract, most of the manufacturing work would have been done in the Seattle area. EADS proposes building the aircraft at a new plant in Mobile, Ala.

But are the supporting legal infrastructures in Seattle and Mobile roughly equal? Such concerns are vital, given the usual propensities for fraud and malfeasance in any 50-billion-dollar contract.

Having been enmeshed until recently in a desperate legal struggle of my own (one involving credit card fraud and identity theft) in lower Alabama, I was in no position to publicize the shortcomings of its justice system. But with that case concluded, I can now blow the whistle. Whether criminal or civil, local state or even federal, Alabama jurisprudence and law enforcement are ineffectual instruments, producing justice only as accidental outcomes.

The novels of Faulkner and Grisham, as well as movies like “My Cousin Vinny,” have captured the essence of the southern courthouse culture. “Vinny” is actually something of an understatement, an unhappy fact I learned only after living in Alabama from 2004-2006. The underpinnings of that culture are reinforced by a highly decentralized structure. Small, under-paid and under-educated, law enforcement and judicial agencies are a latter-day confederacy of independent fiefdoms. ‘Bama cops and judges simply see no reason to cooperate much with each other or anyone else, nor have they apparently done so since Reconstruction.

Don’t get me wrong. Baldwin County, Ala., is pleasant enough, with crepe myrtles lining the streets and beauty contestants flaunting themselves in Scarlett O’Hara dresses. But I naively assumed that reporting the initial evidence of credit card fraud and identity theft would be enough to trigger a competent investigation. It was not. Despite several potential violations of federal law, the U.S. attorney in Mobile ceded jurisdiction to the local police, who promptly concluded that nothing criminal had taken place.

Clearing my name meant spending the next year pursuing a civil case, an expensive and deeply frustrating experience. Along the way: subpoenas went undelivered and process servers got lost, one even asking directions from the person who was being served. Worse yet, the judge didn’t care whether witnesses showed up or if subpoenas, once delivered, had actually been complied with. Two of the banks involved in my case never appeared for trial yet were never fined a single dollar for contempt.

Despite warnings that this judge enjoyed a reputation for having “all the consistency of a two-iron shot in a shower stall,” the civil case was eventually decided in my favor.

Proverbs says that “A good name is rather to be chosen than great riches.” True enough but especially so when the judge never even bothered to enforce her own civil decrees. Four months later, and despite the damning new evidence presented during the trial, no criminal charges have been filed by any of the half-dozen local, state or federal agencies that exercise jurisdiction.

But please recall the main reason why I am telling you this: credit card fraud, a growing problem even before the recession, is an easy touchdown compared with the subtleties of defense procurement law. On a large contract, it is not unusual to run into multiple allegations of product substitution, defective parts, over-charging and even old-fashioned kickbacks. Proving or disproving such charges requires not only competent investigators but also the tightest possible teamwork from a well-integrated law enforcement team, both federal and local.

Sadly, those capabilities are nowhere in evidence in lower Alabama. Even more sadly, no one with oversight for the tanker decision seems to have noticed, much less asked what additional costs would be required to shore up an inefficient and badly antiquated legal infrastructure. Because if government contracting interests are potentially at risk, just think of all those unsuspecting aircraft workers eager to move to Alabama in search of new jobs.

So maybe Robert Gates did all of us a favor last week when he took such strong actions to reassert the need for more diligent performance by Air Force leaders. And maybe he recalled a lesson familiar to weekend carpenters: measure twice, cut once.

Did You Know…

June 11, 2008 By: Thor Category: Energy, Foriegn Policy, Politics, Uncategorized No Comments →

Oil shale… this is something that has been talked about and around since I first started looking into energy when I was a Boy Scout back in the early ’70s. One of my first merit badges was for nuclear energy. Here we are 30+ years later (man am I getting old) and we still have not recognized our ability to exploit this source.

For a second, let’s think about how 5 million barrels a day of domestic production might impact our international trade balance. We could, reduce our dependence on foreign oil sources and be better able to leverage our demand in the foriegn policy arena. Maybe quit using Venezuelan oil? If we increase production, maybe we could be a net exporter of oil… reduce our Chinese trade deficits and have a little more foreign policy leverage in that critical part of the world as well. So many different permutations and options that would be available to the policy makers.

U.S. Oil Shale Resources Are Three Times Larger Than the Current Oil Reserves in Saudi Arabia YET CONGRESS RECENTLY VOTED TO MAKE IT ILLEGAL TO DEVELOP U.S. OIL SHALE RESOURCES

With oil prices at an all-time high, Americans are facing escalating gas, diesel, and aircraft fuel increases. Oil prices are projected to increase further.

Congress, however, has made it illegal to develop vast domestic oil resources in large parts of the United States.

The most startling Congressional prohibition on domestic oil production concerns the recently enacted ban on the development of oil shale resources in parts of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming in the Green River Formation. According to a Rand Study estimate, this reserve contains over one trillion barrels of oil, with 800 billion barrels fully recoverable, or three times the current oil reserves as Saudi Arabia:

The largest known oil shale deposits in the world are in the Green River Formation, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Estimates of the oil resource in place within the Green River Formation range from 1.5 to 1.8 trillion barrels. Not all resources in place are recoverable. For potentially recoverable oil shale resources, we roughly derive an upper bound of 1.1 trillion barrels of oil and a lower bound of about 500 billion barrels. For policy planning purposes, it is enough to know that any amount in this range is very high. For example, the midpoint in our estimate range, 800 billion barrels, is more than triple the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. Present U.S. demand for petroleum products is about 20 million barrels per day. If oil shale could be used to meet a quarter of that demand, 800 billion barrels of recoverable resources would last for more than 400 years.

(James T. Bartis, et. al., “Oil Shale Development in the United States: Prospects and Policy Issues” (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2005), p. ix. http://rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.pdf) (emphasis added)

The same RAND study indicated that technology exists today that would allow oil shale extraction and that the process would be cost effective once the price of a barrel of oil was $95 (p. x). The price of a barrel of oil today is around $130.

However, Shell Oil has been investing in technology that would make extraction much cheaper than standard pit mining:

Shell Oil Company has successfully conducted small-scale field tests of an insitu process based on slow underground heating via thermal conduction. Larger scale operations are required to establish technical viability, especially with regard to avoiding adverse impacts on groundwater quality. Shell anticipates that, in contrast to the cost estimates for mining and surface retorting, the petroleum products produced by their thermally conductive in-situ method will be competitive at crude oil prices in the mid-$20s per barrel.

(James T. Bartis, et. al., “Oil Shale Development in the United States: Prospects and Policy Issues” (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2005), p. x. http://rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.pdf)

In short, if the Congress removed its prohibition, America could develop a substantial amount of its oil needs from domestic oil shale resources rather than relying on foreign governments.

The Energy Policy Act of 2005 specifically declared that it was the policy of the United States to recognize oil shale as a strategically important domestic resource. Section 369 states:

DECLARATION OF POLICY.—Congress declares that it is the policy of the United States that—

(1) United States oil shale, tar sands, and other unconventional fuels are strategically important domestic resources that should be developed to reduce the growing dependence of the United States on politically and economically unstable sources of foreign oil imports;

(2) the development of oil shale, tar sands, and other strategic unconventional fuels, for research and commercial development, should be conducted in an environmentally sound manner, using practices that minimize impacts; and

(3) development of those strategic unconventional fuels should occur, with an emphasis on sustainability, to benefit the United States while taking into account affected States and communities.

(Energy Policy Act of 2005, http://www.epa.gov/oust/fedlaws/publ_109-058.pdf)

Yet, buried in a Department of Interior appropriations bill passed in December 2007 was an amendment that prevented establishing regulations for leasing land to drill for oil shale. The House passed that amendment, proposed by Rep. Mark Udall of Colorado, on June 27, 2007, by a vote of 219-215.

On May 15, 2008 in a 15-14 vote, the Senate Appropriations Committee rejected an amendment by Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) to allow oil shale drilling and overturn the Udall moratorium.

As you can see by the votes on the two issues above, this is an issue that is resulting in a split across the congress folks. We need to get them over the hump on this one.

Paradise by the dashboard light – Original

June 11, 2008 By: Thor Category: Music No Comments →

And of course we have the original from the late 70′s.